OTB #055: How a 19.1% risk premium leads you to playing more passively on a final table

You're on the final table of the $109 WCOOP Bootcamp.

The chip leader minraises from the Cut Off and you defend Ac Js in the Big Blind.

The flop comes Ad Qd 4c. You check and the CO bets 1.65bb into 5.5bb (30% pot).

Would you call or raise?

Today I'm going to explore how your postflop strategy changes on a final table compared to a cEV world.

Let's dive in...

Preflop cEV

In a cEV world the Cut Off opens 35.0% of hands:

And you get to play almost 84% of hands in the Big Blind, 3-betting to 7.5bb about 10.6% of the time:

AJo is a call most of the time.

Postflop cEV

If the Cut Off wants to just use the 30% bet size, then they can bet their entire range.

Facing that 30% c-bet, your strategy looks like this:

Your overarching strategy is to mainly fold (47.5%), then call (42.8%) and then raise (9.7%).

Your raising range is mainly made up of sets (44) and two pair (AQ,A4,Q4) together with some 3rd pair (e.g. 64o and 42o), combo draws (e.g. 3d2d and 5d3d), flush draws (e.g. Td6d and Kd2d) and gutshot straight draws (52o and 53o).

The CO has a huge equity advantage at 63.3% vs 36.7% and nut advantage at 5.9% vs 2.4%, together with having a huge top pair advantage as well.

Your exact hand (Ac Js) wants to raise 100% of the time. You get value from weaker Ax hands, some pairs with a diamond, some Qx, some 4x, all flush draws and some straight draws.

But should you also raise in this final table spot?

Preflop ICM

On the final table, the chip leader gets to open 45.0% of hands now from the Cut Off. That's 10% more hands compared to the cEV sim.

The bigger surprise is what your strategy looks like in the Big Blind:

While you were 3-betting 10.6% of hands before, you're now only 3-betting 0.8% of hands.

This is because you're 3rd in chips, facing a raise from the chip leader and you're out of position.

You don't have enough hands in your range that want to stack off here because of your high risk premium against the opener.

If you 3-bet and the Cut Off 4-bets, you only really want to stack off with AA and AKs for value and maybe A5s and A2s as a "bluff" sometimes.

You also fold a lot of the real garbage hands like Q2o, J6o and 74o that called in the cEV sim because these hands just can't realise enough equity out of position with such a high risk premium.

Our risk premium against the chip leader is a whopping 19.1%:

Your risk premium will always be the highest against the chip leader - you have the most to lose against them since they can bust you.

So you play really passively preflop, but that does at least mean that you have some very strong hands going into the flop that you would have 3-bet before like AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK and AQ.

AJo is now 100% a call.

Postflop ICM

On the final table, while the Cut Off still has an equity advantage, it's reduced somewhat to 58.5% vs 41.5%.

They're opening more hands and you're folding your absolute garbage and also calling the top of your range rather than 3-betting it.

The Cut Off still has a nut advantage too at 5.8% vs 4.1% and top pair advantage at 23.8% vs 14.1%.

They still bet a lot for that 30% sizing, but they do have a checking range now too:

Facing the 30% c-bet, your response changes as well.

You now raise to a smaller size (51% rather than 68% pot) and you raise less often (6.6% now instead of 9.7%).

The make up of the raising range has changed too. Your exact hand no longer wants to raise at all:

While you can still get value from the weaker Ax hands, pairs with a diamond, some Qx, all flush draws almost all gutshots, raising here makes the pot bigger out of position.

And you need a stronger hand to start making the pot bigger.

And the bigger the pot gets, the greater the chance that the Cut Off could put you all in where you have to think about your whopping 19.1% risk premium again.

The raises are now coming from:

• Sets (AA, QQ and 44)

• Two pair (AQ and A4)

• Some flush draws

• Some gutshots

So while you have some stronger hands now like AA, QQ and AQ to raise, you're still playing a lot more passively.

Your overarching strategy now is to mainly call (52.3%), then fold (41.1%) and raise only 6.6%.

And that's because it's a final table.

And it's 3rd vs 1st in chips.

And your risk premium against the chip leader is massive.

And it would really suck to bust in 8th.

So you need a much stronger hand to raise for value.

Summary

Learning how to adjust your preflop and postflop strategy on a final table will make you more money at the business end of the tournament.

I used GTO Wizard's new postflop ICM AI for the postflop sims in this issue. If you want 10% off your first purchase and to try it out for yourself, click this link.

That's it for this week.

See you next time.