OTB #062: The #1 Exploit to CRUSH Low and Midstakes MTTs

I've spent years searching for the ultimate exploit that will help you crush low- and mid-stakes MTTs.

I used to think it was simply outworking your competition that would give you a huge edge.

But from working with hundreds of low and mid stakes MTT players I learnt something...

Most low and mid stakes MTT players don't know how to bluff... especially on the river.

So today I'm going to show you how to adjust for this and make better decisions facing big river bets.

Let's dive in...

It's Big, But It's Not Clever

When most low- and mid-stakes players make a big river bet, it’s not a clever bluff—It's almost always a value bet, especially if they've already bet the flop and turn.

In this example, Villain (who is in MP) bet the flop for 57% pot, the turn for 80% pot and is now jamming the river for 95% pot.

They have a hand they’re confident in—a hand they want value from.

Sure, they might find a few bluffs sometimes, but not nearly enough to make calling profitable for you.

Carlos Welch summed it up brilliantly when we interviewed him on our Poker On The Mind Podcast, "A bad fold is better than a bad call."

So if they don't bluff enough, or at all, the easy exploit is really simple...

Fold Your Bluff Catchers

Don't get into the mindset that your hand is too strong to fold, or if you fold this you'll be easy to exploit.

Your opponent is not bluffing enough, or at all, so you're exploiting them by massively overfolding.

Of course, if they knew this, they could easily exploit you.

But they're not.

They don't know what the bluffs are supposed to look like so they're too heavily weighted towards value.

Isn't This a Good Bluff Catcher?

QTo is not a particularly strong hand on this river, but if you're thinking that it blocks a lot of the value hands that Villain could have, you would be right.

But you should stop doing that.

It's true that you block straights (AT and T9s), sets (QQ) and two pair (KQ and QJ) so this should make this hand a good bluff catcher.

You're supposed to call this hand sometimes to prevent your opponent from overbluffing:

But calling here is at best break-even against an opponent that is bluffing enough.

And I'm confident enough to say that most of your opponents are not.

If we take away some bluffs, a break-even call quickly turns into a -EV one.

This is your calling range at equilibrium:

You should call all your 2pair+ hands and then hands like AQ, K9 and JT, while indifferent, are mainly folding.

Which begs the question... if the one pair hands are mainly folding, should you now classify some 2 pair hands as bluff catchers?

What Are The Bluffs?

Villain is supposed to value bet any hand 2pair or better. Then they should bluff with hands like JT, low pairs (like 22-77 or T8s) and suited Ax (A2-A7s).

Let's Get Unreal

If your opponent only jams two pair or better on this river, what's the worst hand you can call with?

What's the best hand you should fold?

The answer might surprise you...

The only hand you can call is the nut straight - AT!

That means you have to fold hands as strong as two pair.

This is of course an extreme example, but if you land on this river with KJ, while you could argue that you beat QJ that jams for value, you also lose to straights, sets and better 2 pair.

So it's not as simple as saying, "Do you have a hand that can beat some of your opponent's value bets? If so, then call. If not, then you have a bluff catcher and you should fold."

You have to massively overfold.

Because your opponent's range is too heavily weighted towards hands that beat you.

The crazy thing is that if you take out the Ax bluffs, but leave in the low pairs, you can still only call AT.

And if you take out the low pairs, but leave in the Ax bluffs, you can still only call AT.

Crazy, huh?

So to be able to call two pair hands at full frequency, your opponent has to bluff low pairs and Ax hands.

How likely is that in the games you play?

Summary

When facing big river bets from low- and mid-stakes MTT players, it's essential to recognise that most of them are heavily weighted towards value rather than bluffing.

While theory might suggest you should call with certain hands to prevent being overbluffed, the reality is that most opponents simply aren't bluffing enough to justify these calls.

The exploit here is simple: overfold.

That's it for this week.

See you next time.